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Seiring kondisi kecemasan masyarakat mengenai wabah Covid-19 atau virus corona meningkat di berbagai negara, masih terdapat kabar baik yang bisa menenangkan kekhawatiran itu.
Kabar baik itu tertuang dalam analisis seorang pemenang Nobel sekaligus ahli biofisika Stanford, Michael Levitt.
Pada penelitian tersebut memperkirakan peningkatan jumlah kematian terkait kasus virus corona akan terus berkurang dari hari ke hari.
Dikutip TribunPalu.com dari media teknologi daring Israel, calcalistech.com Michael Levitt menceritakan detail soal kabar baik ini.
Levitt sengaja mengirimka pesan-pesan menenangkan kepada teman-temannya yang berada di China.
Lalu, analisis Levitt tersebut diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa Mandarin dan diteruskan melalui pesan broadcast.
Kabar baik ini pun menjadi pembicaraan populer untuk berbagai wawancara di Asia.
Levitt mungkin bukanlah ahli epidemiologi, tetapi ia memahami betul tentang perhitungan dan statistik, katanya kepada Calcalist dalam sebuah wawancara telepon.
Meskipun dia yakin pandemi ini akan berjalan baik-baik saja, Levitt menekankan dukungannya terhadap semua kebijakan demi keselamatan yang saat ini sedang diterapkan dan wajib untuk dipatuhi.
Levitt sama sekali tak bermaksud menjadi nabi yang meramalkan kapan akhir dari pandemi ini terjadi, sebab analisisnya tepat merupakan hal yang tidak disengaja.
Istrinya, Shoshan Brosh adalah seorang peneliti seni di China dan kurator untuk seni fotografer setempat, yang berarti pasangan ini harus membagi waktu mereka antara Amerika Serikat, Israel, dan China.
Saat kasus corona ini meledak, Brosh menulis kalimat penyemangat kepada teman-temannya di China.
"Ketika mereka menjawab kami, mereka menggambarkan betapa rumitnya situasi di sana (China), saya memutuskan untuk menelisik lebih dalam pada angka-angka (laporan kasus setiap harinya) dengan harapan bisa mendapatkan beberapa kesimpulan," jelas Levitt seperti dikutip dari Calcalistech yang terbit Jumat (13/3/2020).
“Tingkat infeksi virus di provinsi Hubei meningkat 30% setiap hari. Itu adalah statistik yang menakutkan. Saya bukan ahli influenza tetapi saya bisa menganalisis angka dan itu adalah pertumbuhan eksponensial," sambungnya.
Pada tingkat ini, kemungkinan terburuknya seluruh dunia seharusnya sudah terinfeksi dalam 90 hari, katanya.
Namun, dari hari ke hari tren tersebut berubah.
Ketika Levitt mulai menganalisis data pada 1 Februari, Hubei memiliki 1.800 kasus baru setiap hari dan dalam enam hari jumlah ini mencapai 4.700.
“Dan kemudian, pada 7 Februari, jumlah kasus infeksi baru mulai menurun secara linear dan tidak berhenti. Seminggu kemudian, hal yang sama terjadi dengan jumlah kematian," kata Levitt.
Itu artinya, perubahan yang signifikan pada kurva ini menandai titik puncak.
"Perubahan dramatis pada kurva ini menandai titik tengah dan memungkinkan prediksi yang lebih baik tentang kapan pandemi akan berakhir. Berdasarkan itu, saya menyimpulkan bahwa situasi di seluruh Tiongkok akan membaik dalam dua minggu. Dan, memang, sekarang ada sangat sedikit kasus infeksi baru,” lanjutnya.
Pesan Levitt dalam sebuah broadcast itu dengan cepat membuat penasaran masyarakat China dan orang-orang yang ingin memastikan dia memang menulis informasi yang benar.
Kemudian, mereka pun mulai menghubungi Levitt untuk mengkonfirmasi prediksinya itu.
“Itulah bagaimana saya tahu saya perlu melanjutkan (analisis angka tersebut),” katanya.
Levitt mulai mengirimkan laporan berkala kepada teman-temannya di China, dan popularitas mereka menyebabkan wawancara di televisi China, misalnya pada CGTN yang setara dengan CNN.
Berdasarkan berkurangnya jumlah kasus infeksi dan kematian, katanya, virus itu mungkin akan hilang dari China pada akhir Maret.
Levitt menghindari membuat prediksi ini secara global.
Di China, katanya, jumlah kasus infeksi baru akan segera mencapai angka nol.
Lalu Korea Selatan telah melewati titik puncak dan sudah dapat melihat ujung akhir wabah ini.
Menurutnya, mengenai seluruh dunia, masih sulit untuk memprediksikannya.
Dari hasil hitungannya itu dengan tepat menemukan bahwa China akan melalui puncak virus corona terburuknya, jauh sebelum banyak pakar kesehatan memperkirakan.
Jika sejumlah ahli epidemiologi memprediksi akan ada gangguan sosial besar-besaran dan berkepanjangan serta jutaan kematian, analisis Levitt justru berkebalikan dengan skenario terburuk itu.
"Yang kita butuhkan saat ini adalah mengendalikan kepanikan. Dalam skala besar, kita akan baik-baik saja," kata Levitt dalam wawancaranya.
Data yang digunakan Levitt
Lantas data apa yang dianalisis oleh Levitt dari kasus wabah virus corona di China?
Pada 31 Januari, China mencatat 46 kasus kematian baru karena virus corona dan 42 kematian sehari sebelumnya.
Meski jumlah kematian terus meningkat setiap harinya, tetapi tren kenaikan itu perlahan mereda.
Menurut penelitiannya, Levitt menemukan fakta bahwa kasus baru yang sedang diidentifikasi atau dalam masa pasien dalam pengawasan (PDP) cenderung lebih lambat daripada jumlah kasus baru positif terinfeksi corona menjadi tanda awal bahwa lintasan wabah telah bergeser.
"Ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat peningkatan jumlah kematian akan melambat pada pekan-pekan mendatang," tulis Levitt dalam sebuah laporan yang dikirim kepada teman-temannya, 1 Februari lalu, yang secara luas dibagikan di media sosial China.
Itulah mengapa ia berani memperkirakan jumlah kematian akan berkurang setiap hari.
Prediksi yang akurat
Tiga minggu setelahnya, Levitt mengatakan kepada China Daily News bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan virus telah memuncak.
Dia memperkirakan bahwa jumlah total kasus Covid-19 yang terkonfirmasi di China akan mencapai sekitar 80.000, dengan sekitar 3.250 kematian.
Perkiraan ini ternyata sangat akurat.
Pada 16 Maret, total kasus Covid-19 di China tercatat sejumlah 80.298 kasus dan 3.245 kematian, dengan total penduduk negara mencapai 1,4 miliar orang dan sekitar 10 juta penduduk meninggal setiap tahunnya.
Jumlah pasien yang baru didiagnosis telah turun menjadi sekitar 25 setiap harinya, tanpa ada kasus penyebaran yang dilaporkan sejak Rabu.
Mencari titik puncak wabah di setiap negara
Kini, ilmuwan yang menerima Hadiah Nobel 2013 itu tengah mecoba melihat adanya titik puncak dengan metode serupa di negara-negara lain.
Bahkan, titik ledakan itu juga diprediksi terjadi pada negara-negara yang tidak memberlakukan aturan isolasi ketat atau lockdown seperti dilakukan oleh China.
Untuk mendapatkan kesimpulan ini, Levitt menganalisis data dari 78 negara yang melaporkan lebih dari 50 kasus Covid-19 baru setiap harinya dan melihat adanya tanda-tanda pemulihan di banyak negara.
Dia tidak fokus pada jumlah total kasus di suatu negara, tetapi lebih pada jumlah kasus baru yang diidentifikasi setiap hari, terutama pada perubahan jumlah dari satu hari ke hari berikutnya.
"Angka-angkanya masih tinggi, tetapi jelas ada tanda-tanda pertumbuhan (virus corona) melambat," katanya.
Misalnya, di Korea Selatan, kasus baru memang masih muncul dan membuat jumlah total kasus bertambah.
Namun, perhitungan kasus baru setiap harinya telah menurun dalam beberapa minggu terakhir dengan angka tetap di bawah 200.
Data itu menunjukkan bahwa wabah corona di sana mungkin sudah mereda.
Selanjutnya di Iran, jumlah kasus baru Covid-19 yang terkonfirmasi per harinya relatif datar pada pekan lalu.
Pada Senin pekan lalu, kenaikan kasus mencapai 1.053, tetapi pada hari Minggu hanya 1.028.
Meskipun angka kasus baru tersebut terbilang masih cukup tinggi, kata Levitt, tetapi polanya menunjukkan bahwa wabah di sana seolah sudah melewati batas setengah jalan dari masa ledakan wabah.
Sementara, jumlah kasus baru di Italia diperkirakan masih akan terus meninggi.
Di negara itu, jumlah kasus baru yang terkonfirmasi terus meningkat pada sebagian besar hari dalam sepekan terakhir ini.
Di tempat-tempat yang telah berhasil pulih dari wabah awal yakni Wuhan, China, para pejabat masih harus mengantisipasi fakta bahwa virus corona dapat kembali.
Seperti China yang sekarang sedang berjuang menghentikan gelombang kedua infeksi baru yang datang dari tempat-tempat di mana virus itu menyebar tak terkendali.
Negara-negara lain, menurut dia, hampir pasti menghadapi masalah yang sama.
Tidak separah yang terjadi
Levitt mengatakan, ia mendukung kebijakan-kebijakan ketat untuk memerangi wabah tersebut.
Menurut dia, mandat social distancing dan physical distancing atau pembatasan sosial sangat penting.
Terutama larangan pertemuan besar, karena virus ini sangat baru sehingga penduduk tidak memiliki kekebalan terhadapnya dan vaksin kemungkinan baru bisa digunakan beberapa bulan lagi.
Meski begitu, lanjutnya, mendapatkan vaksinasi flu juga penting untuk mengurangi kemungkinan rumah sakit dibanjiri pasien karena virus corona yang tidak terdeteksi.
Dia menambahkan, pemberitaan media juga berkontribusi besar terhadap kepanikan yang tidak perlu di masyarakat.
Padahal, kasus penyakit lainnya yang juga menyebabkan angka kematian yang tinggi tidak hanya virus corona, tetapi hal itu tidak banyak diberitakan.
Levitt khawatir, langkah-langkah kesehatan masyarakat yang telah menyebabkan gangguan ekonomi yang masif ini justru bisa menyebabkan bencana kesehatan mental mereka sendiri, seperti kemiskinan dan keputusasaan karena kehilangan pekerjaan.
Dia menuturkan, virus dapat tumbuh secara eksponensial atau peningkatan dalam periode tertentu hanya ketika tidak terdeteksi dan tidak ada yang bertindak untuk mengendalikannya.
Hal itulah yang terjadi di Korea Selatan bulan lalu.
Jadi, perlu deteksi dini yang lebih baik, tidak hanya melalui pengujian, tetapi juga bisa dengan pengawasan suhu tubuh seperti diterapkan China, dan isolasi sosial.
Meskipun untuk sementara ini tingkat kematian akibat Covid-19 tampak secara signifikan lebih tinggi daripada flu, Levitt mengatakan, masyarakat tak perlu khawatir.
"Ini bukan akhir dunia. Situasi sebenarnya tidak separah yang seolah terjadi," ungkapnya.
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